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How about here in [R’s state]. Which candidate for President do you think will carry this state? (1988,1984, IF NECESSARY: Which candidate will win in this state?) Do you think (1972: it) (1988,1996,2004: the Presidential race) will be close here in [R’s state] or will [name given] win by quite a bit? 1980,1984,1988,1992 ONLY: (IF DK) Do you think the Presidential race will be close here in [R’s state] or will one candidate win by quite a bit?
Expected closeness of presidential race in state · Asked in 13 waves, 1972–2024 · 42,337 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Kept and flagged: 8 (dk), 9 (other_missing). Codebook notes: 1952 NOTE: The 1952 version of this question was not comparable. 1972 NOTE: If R replied DK to ‘Which candidate do you think will carry this state?’ (VCF9028) then this question was not asked. 1976 NOTE: same as 1972. 2004 NOTE: A programming error early in the field period resulted in 52 respondents who replied DK to VCF9028 not being asked VCF9029; these 52 cases are coded ‘99. NA’ in 2004 data file and ‘9. NA’ here.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Close race | Win by quite a bit | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 41% | 59% | 5276 | ±2 | |
| Democrats |
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2024 Time Series Study Source variable: V241214. | 2024-08-03 to 2025-02-17 | mixed | 5,521 | 5,276 |
| ANES 2020 Time Series Study Source variable: V201220. | 2020-08-18 to 2021-01-04 | mixed | 8,280 | 8,280 |
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Source variable: V161149. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 4,270 |
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study Source variable: preswin_closest. | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 5,914 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,322 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study Source variable: V043096. | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,212 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study Source variable: V960384. | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,714 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study Source variable: V923105. |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| 41% |
| 59% |
| 1865 |
| ±3 |
| Independents (incl. leaners) | 44% | 56% | 1726 | ±3 |
| Republicans | 38% | 62% | 1652 | ±3 |
ANES 2024 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 |
| mixed |
| 2,485 |
| 2,485 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study Source variable: V880101. | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 2,040 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study Source variable: V840079. | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 2,257 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study Source variable: V800058. | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,614 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study Source variable: V763029. | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 2,248 |
| ANES 1972 Time Series Study Source variable: V720028. | 1972-09-01 to 1973-02-13 | face to face | 2,705 | 2,705 |