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How [1996,2004: What] about here in [R’s state]. Which candidate for President do you think will carry this state? (1984,1988,1992, 2004: IF NECESSARY: Which candidate will win in this state?)
Expected presidential winner in respondent's state · Asked in 14 waves, 1952–2024 · 43,759 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Codes that include 'no Pre/Post IW' were dropped for respondents without that interview. Dropped as not asked: 9 'NA; Washington D.C.'. Kept and flagged: 8 (dk). Codebook notes: 2004 NOTE: Code 5, ‘Ralph Nader’ and code 7, ‘Other’ have been coded 3 here.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Democratic Pres. candidate | Republican Pres. candidate | Other Pres. candidate | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents |
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2024 Time Series Study Source variable: V241213. | 2024-08-03 to 2025-02-17 | mixed | 5,521 | 5,238 |
| ANES 2020 Time Series Study Source variable: V201219. | 2020-08-18 to 2021-01-04 | mixed | 8,280 | 8,212 |
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Source variable: V161148. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 4,224 |
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study Source variable: preswin_state. | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 5,870 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,317 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study Source variable: V043095. | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,212 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study Source variable: V960383. | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,710 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study Source variable: V923104. |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| 49% |
| 51% |
| 0% |
| 5238 |
| ±2 |
| Protestant | 39% | 61% | – | 1633 | ±4 |
| Catholic | 58% | 42% | – | 965 | ±5 |
| Jewish | 57% | 43% | – | 116 | ±13 |
| Other faith | 47% | 53% | 0% | 1197 | ±4 |
| None | 55% | 45% | 0% | 1327 | ±4 |
ANES 2024 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 |
| mixed |
| 2,485 |
| 2,482 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study Source variable: V880100. | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 2,038 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study Source variable: V840078. | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 2,253 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study Source variable: V800057. | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,569 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study Source variable: V763028. | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 2,244 |
| ANES 1972 Time Series Study Source variable: V720027. | 1972-09-01 to 1973-02-13 | face to face | 2,705 | 2,697 |
| ANES 1952 Time Series Study Source variable: V520015. | 1952-09-15 | face to face | 1,899 | 1,693 |