Who won House race?
Winner of the House race in district · Asked in 19 waves, 1970–2012 · 38,354 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Not loaded for 2016: the release places 72% of 2016 respondents in districts whose House incumbent was not running (VCF0903), against 9% to 15% in 2008, 2012, and 2020 and far more than the share of seats that were open that year, so its 2016 type-of-race coding, and the items built from it, look wrong. Judged a coding error; ANES has published no erratum. Dropped as not asked: 9 'Washington D.C.; California (1974 only, due to redistricting, type of race could not be determined); winner not from major party (2000); respondent district NA (2000); district misidentified (2000)'. Codebook notes: 1970 NOTE: Warning: The procedures used in the creation of the VCF1014 ‘winner’ for 1970 and 1974 produced data that have been checked somewhat, but perfect accuracy cannot be completely guaranteed due to the nature of attempting case- by-case coding from reference material. The possibility of some error must be recognized and the ‘winner’ established in VCF1014 should be used with caution and at the user’s risk. 1974 NOTE: See 1970 warning. California data in 1974 for VCF1014 ‘Who Won’ is not recoverable because ‘type of race’ in California districts for the 1974 election cannot be determined. 2016 NOTE: For LA04, late identification of final candidates resulted in having type of race not determined. LA04 cases are coded 9.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 5,671 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,067 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,065 |
| ANES 2002 Time Series Study | 2002-09-18 to 2002-12-06 | phone | 1,511 | 1,507 |
| ANES 2000 Time Series Study | 2000-09-05 to 2000-12-22 | mixed | 1,807 | 1,795 |
| ANES 1998 Time Series Study | 1998-11-04 to 1998-12-23 | mixed | 1,281 | 1,279 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,713 |
| ANES 1994 Time Series Study | 1994-11-09 to 1995-01-08 | mixed | 1,795 | 1,795 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study | 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 | mixed | 2,485 | 2,485 |
| ANES 1990 Time Series Study |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| Group | WINNER: incumbent, Democrat | WINNER: incumbent, Republican | WINNER: challenger, Republican (loser: Democratic incumbent) | WINNER: challenger, Democrat (loser: Republican incumbent) | WINNER: open-seat candidate, Democrat (race contested) | WINNER: open-seat candidate, Republican (race contested) | WINNER: uncontested open-seat candidate, Democrat | WINNER: uncontested open-seat candidate, Republican | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 36% | 45% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 7% | – | – | 5671 | ±2 | |
| Protestant | 32% | 48% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 2443 | ±3 | |
| Catholic | 41% | 41% | 1% | 3% | 8% | 5% | – | – | 1315 | ±4 | |
| Jewish | 48% | 28% | – | 0% | 13% | 10% | – | – | 106 | ±13 | |
| Other faith | 36% | 46% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 7% | – | – | 522 | ±6 | |
| None | 39% | 43% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 7% | – | – | 1266 | ±4 |
ANES 2012 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1990-11-06 to 1991-01-21 |
| face to face |
| 1,980 |
| 1,980 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 2,040 |
| ANES 1986 Time Series Study | 1986-11-05 to 1987-02-07 | face to face | 2,176 | 2,171 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 2,257 |
| ANES 1982 Time Series Study | 1982-11-02 to 1983-01-31 | face to face | 1,418 | 1,414 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,614 |
| ANES 1978 Time Series Study | 1978-11-08 to 1979-01-25 | face to face | 2,304 | 2,304 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 2,242 |
| ANES 1974 Time Series Study | 1974-11-06 to 1975-01-31 | face to face | 1,575 | 1,458 |
| ANES 1970 Time Series Study | 1970-11-04 to 1971-01-13 | face to face | 1,507 | 1,497 |