PartyID of respondent and House incumbent
Respondent party and House incumbent party · Asked in 20 waves, 1970–2016 · 30,374 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Dropped as not asked: 9 'R does not have major party partisanship or NA if has major party partisanship; no incumbent running; Washington D.C.; California (1974 only: due to redistricting type of race could not be determined); incumbent is not member of major party (1994,2000)'. Codebook notes: GENERAL NOTE: This variable has been created from R’s party ID (VCF0301) and from type of congressional race (VCF0902). The respondent has been considered a partisan if R was coded as ‘strong’ ‘weak’ or leaning. WARNING: In years prior to 1978, no ‘type of race’ var was present in study datasets. Data were added, however, to ‘type of race’ cumulative file var 902 for 1970, 1974 and 1976 using a lengthy case-by-case procedure. Although the resultant ‘type of race’ data have been checked to some extent, the possibility of some error must be recognized: the ‘type of race’ established for 1970, 1974 and 1976– and, as a further result, data in VCF1004 and VCF1005 for 1970, 1974 and 1976 (which have been built using type-of-race data)– should be used with caution and at the user’s risk. 2016 NOTE: Built from VCF0902 and CF0301.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | R is:Democrat; INCUMBENT:Democrat |
|---|
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Covers only the 28% of 2016 respondents the release places in districts with a running House incumbent; that type-of-race coding looks wrong this year (see VCF0903), so this wave's universe is suspect. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 1,035 |
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study Source variable: pid_self,pid_x,typerace2012_x. | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 4,185 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 1,607 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study Source variable: V043116,V044502. | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 820 |
| ANES 2002 Time Series Study Source variable: V023036,V024500a. | 2002-09-18 to 2002-12-06 | phone | 1,511 | 1,218 |
| ANES 2000 Time Series Study Source variable: V000194,V000523. | 2000-09-05 to 2000-12-22 | mixed | 1,807 | 1,403 |
| ANES 1998 Time Series Study Source variable: V980339,V980065. | 1998-11-04 to 1998-12-23 | mixed |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| R is:Republican; INCUMBENT:Republican |
|---|
| R is:Democrat; INCUMBENT:Republican |
|---|
| R is:Republican; INCUMBENT:Democrat |
|---|
| n |
|---|
| MoE |
|---|
| All respondents | 36% | 29% | 22% | 13% | 1035 | ±4 | |
| Less than high school † | 19% | 38% | 30% | 13% | 59 | ±15 | |
| High school | 31% | 33% | 24% | 12% | 245 | ±7 | |
| Some college | 38% | 30% | 18% | 14% | 254 | ±7 | |
| Bachelor's | 35% | 30% | 21% | 13% | 266 | ±7 | |
| Postgraduate | 51% | 15% | 18% | 16% | 203 | ±8 |
ANES 2016 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1,281 |
| 1,021 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study Source variable: V960420,V960097. | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,401 |
| ANES 1994 Time Series Study Source variable: V940017,V940655. | 1994-11-09 to 1995-01-08 | mixed | 1,795 | 1,338 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study Source variable: V923021,V923634. | 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 | mixed | 2,485 | 1,712 |
| ANES 1990 Time Series Study Source variable: V900058,V900320. | 1990-11-06 to 1991-01-21 | face to face | 1,980 | 1,571 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study Source variable: V880050,V880274. | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 1,677 |
| ANES 1986 Time Series Study Source variable: V860043,V860300. | 1986-11-05 to 1987-02-07 | face to face | 2,176 | 1,724 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study Source variable: V840059,V840318. | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 1,801 |
| ANES 1982 Time Series Study Source variable: V820006,V820291. | 1982-11-02 to 1983-01-31 | face to face | 1,418 | 1,092 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study Source variable: V800266,V800740. | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,278 |
| ANES 1978 Time Series Study Source variable: V780004,V780433. | 1978-11-08 to 1979-01-25 | face to face | 2,304 | 1,673 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study Source variable: V763174. | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 1,618 |
| ANES 1974 Time Series Study Source variable: V742204. | 1974-11-06 to 1975-01-31 | face to face | 1,575 | 1,048 |
| ANES 1970 Time Series Study Source variable: V700184(type 0). | 1970-11-04 to 1971-01-13 | face to face | 1,507 | 1,152 |