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Reported Pre vote intention/reported Post vote - President
Intended versus actual presidential vote · Asked in 18 waves, 1948–2016 · 34,916 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Codes that include 'no Pre/Post IW' were dropped for respondents without that interview. Kept and flagged: 0 (other_missing). Codebook notes: GENERAL NOTE: Derived from VCF0706 and VCF0713.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 3,648 |
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 5,510 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,102 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,066 |
| ANES 2000 Time Series Study | 2000-09-05 to 2000-12-22 | mixed | 1,807 | 1,555 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,534 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study | 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 | mixed | 2,485 | 2,255 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 1,775 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 1,989 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| Group | INTENDED Democratic: voted Democratic | INTENDED undecided: voted Democratic; INTENDED ‘other’ party: VOTED Democratic | INTENDED Republican: voted Democratic | INTENDED Democratic: did not vote/voted ‘other’ party | INTENDED undecided: did not vote/voted ‘other’ party; INTENDED ‘other’ party: did not vote/voted ‘other’ party | INTENDED Republican: did not vote/voted ‘other’ party | INTENDED Democratic: voted Republican | INTENDED undecided: voted Republican; INTENDED ‘other’ party: voted Republican | INTENDED Republican: voted Republican | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 40% | 3% | 0% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 35% | 3648 | ±2 | |
| Men | 37% | 2% | 0% | 6% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 3% | ||||
| Women | 43% | 3% | 0% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
ANES 2016 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 |
| face to face |
| 1,614 |
| 1,408 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 1,909 |
| ANES 1972 Time Series Study | 1972-09-01 to 1973-02-13 | face to face | 2,705 | 2,285 |
| ANES 1968 Time Series Study | 1968-09-06 to 1969-01-28 | face to face | 1,557 | 1,384 |
| ANES 1964 Time Series Study | 1964-09-07 to 1965-02-01 | face to face | 1,571 | 1,450 |
| ANES 1960 Time Series Study | 1960-09-12 to 1960-12-26 | face to face | 1,181 | 1,092 |
| ANES 1956 Time Series Study | 1956-09-17 to 1957-01-19 | face to face | 1,762 | 1,762 |
| ANES 1952 Time Series Study | 1952-09-15 | face to face | 1,899 | 1,614 |
| ANES 1948 Time Series Study | 1948-10-01 to 1948-12-31 | face to face | 662 | 578 |
| 37% |
| 1690 |
| ±3 |
| 33% |
| 1916 |
| ±3 |