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(IF R PREDICTS A WINNER IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: ) Do you think it [the presidential race] will be a close race or will [R’s predicted winning candidate] win by quite a bit? 1980 AND LATER: (IF R REPLIES ‘DK’ WHO WILL WIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:) Do you think the presidential race will be close or will one candidate win by quite a bit?
Expectation that the presidential race will be close · Asked in 18 waves, 1952–2020 · 46,721 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Codes that include 'no Pre/Post IW' were dropped for respondents without that interview. Kept and flagged: 0 (other_missing), 9 (dk). Codebook notes: 1956 NOTE: Cases ‘closer than last time,’ ‘same as last time’ or ‘not so close as last time’ are coded 0. 1964 NOTE: If R predicted a winner who was not from the major parties, this question was not asked.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Will win by quite a bit | Close race | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 34% |
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2020 Time Series Study Source variable: V201218. | 2020-08-18 to 2021-01-04 | mixed | 8,280 | 8,280 |
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Source variable: V161147. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 4,270 |
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study Source variable: preswin_close. | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 5,914 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study Source variable: V083074. | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,322 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study Source variable: V043094. | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,212 |
| ANES 2000 Time Series Study Source variable: V000486,V000487. | 2000-09-05 to 2000-12-22 | mixed | 1,807 | 1,807 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study Source variable: V960382. | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,714 |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| 66% |
| 8280 |
| ±1 |
| Northeast | 30% | 70% | 1396 | ±4 |
| Midwest | 36% | 64% | 1997 | ±3 |
| South | 36% | 64% | 3081 | ±2 |
| West | 32% | 68% | 1806 | ±3 |
ANES 2020 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 |
| mixed |
| 2,485 |
| 2,485 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study Source variable: V880099. | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 2,040 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study Source variable: V840077. | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 2,257 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study Source variable: V800055. | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,614 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study Source variable: V763027. | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 2,248 |
| ANES 1972 Time Series Study Source variable: V720026. | 1972-09-01 to 1973-02-13 | face to face | 2,705 | 2,705 |
| ANES 1968 Time Series Study Source variable: V680026. | 1968-09-06 to 1969-01-28 | face to face | 1,557 | 1,557 |
| ANES 1964 Time Series Study Source variable: V640019. | 1964-09-07 to 1965-02-01 | face to face | 1,571 | 1,571 |
| ANES 1960 Time Series Study Source variable: V600018. | 1960-09-12 to 1960-12-26 | face to face | 1,181 | 1,164 |
| ANES 1956 Time Series Study Source variable: V560013. | 1956-09-17 to 1957-01-19 | face to face | 1,762 | 1,762 |
| ANES 1952 Time Series Study Source variable: V520014. | 1952-09-15 | face to face | 1,899 | 1,799 |