Loading…
ALL YEARS EXC. 1948,1992,2012: So far as you know now, do you expect to vote in the national elections this coming November or not? (IF YES:) Who do you think you will vote for in the election for President? 1948: On the coming Presidential election, do you plan to vote? (IF RESPONSE NOT ‘NO’:) Do you plan to vote Republican, Democrat or something else? 1992 and 1996: We all know the election is some time away and people are not certain at this point who they will vote for. Still, who do you think you will vote for in the election for President? 2012 PRE-ELECTION: (IF R IS NOT REGISTERED BUT INTENDS TO REGISTER, OR IF R IS REGISTERED BUT DID NOT VOTE YET:) How about the election for President? Do you intend to vote for a candidate for PRESIDENT? (IF YES:) Who do you think you will vote for? [DEM PRES CAND NAME], [REP PRES CAND NAME], or someone else?
Pre-election intended presidential vote · Asked in 20 waves, 1948–2024 · 52,820 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Codes that include 'no Pre/Post IW' were dropped for respondents without that interview. Kept and flagged: 0 (other_missing), 3 (dk). Codebook notes: GENERAL NOTE: This is a pre var. For 1952-1976, codes 1 and 3 also include presidential candidate vote intentions ‘with qualifications.’ Codes for candidate vote intention ‘with qualifications’ did not appear after 1976. In 1952-1976, if R’s response to the question ‘As far as you know, do you expect to vote in the elections this November?’ was ‘yes, qualified’ (think so/ guess so/ probably, etc.), R was asked this question; if R’s response was ‘no, qualified’ (probably not, etc.) R has been included in code 4; if R’s response was ‘pro-con,’ then this has been coded 0. After 1976, no codes appeared for ‘yes, qualified,’ ‘no, qualified,’ or ‘pro-con’.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2024 Time Series Study Source variable: V241042, V241043. | 2024-08-03 to 2025-02-17 | mixed | 5,521 | 5,521 |
| ANES 2020 Time Series Study Source variable: V201032, V201033. | 2020-08-18 to 2021-01-04 | mixed | 8,280 | 8,280 |
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Source variable: V161030,V161031. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 4,270 |
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study Source variable: prevote_intpres,prevote_intpreswho. | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 5,914 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study Source variable: V083169,V083169a. | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,322 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study Source variable: V043202,V043203. | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,212 |
| ANES 2000 Time Series Study Source variable: V000792,V000793. | 2000-09-05 to 2000-12-22 | mixed | 1,807 | 1,807 |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Democratic candidate (with or without qualifications, 1952-1976) | Republican candidate (with or without qualifications, 1952-1976) | R does not intend to vote (incl. ‘no, qualified’ if will vote, 1952-1976) or does not intend to vote for President | Other candidate | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 45% | 39% | 12% | 5% | 5521 | ±2 | |
| White | 40% | 47% | 10% | 4% | 3946 | ±2 | |
| Black | 75% | 10% | 11% | 4% | 508 | ±6 | |
| Hispanic | 46% | 28% | 20% | 6% | 582 | ±6 | |
| Asian | 54% | 32% | 8% | 7% | 197 | ±9 | |
| Other | 41% | 37% | 19% | 3% | 221 | ±9 |
ANES 2024 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study Source variable: V960548. | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,714 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study Source variable: V923805. | 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 | mixed | 2,485 | 2,485 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study Source variable: V880397. | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 2,040 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study Source variable: V840425. | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 2,257 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study Source variable: V800137. | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,614 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study Source variable: V763044. | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 2,248 |
| ANES 1972 Time Series Study Source variable: V720170. | 1972-09-01 to 1973-02-13 | face to face | 2,705 | 2,705 |
| ANES 1968 Time Series Study Source variable: V680133. | 1968-09-06 to 1969-01-28 | face to face | 1,557 | 1,557 |
| ANES 1964 Time Series Study Source variable: V640160. | 1964-09-07 to 1965-02-01 | face to face | 1,571 | 1,571 |
| ANES 1960 Time Series Study Source variable: V600101. | 1960-09-12 to 1960-12-26 | face to face | 1,181 | 1,164 |
| ANES 1956 Time Series Study Source variable: V560100. | 1956-09-17 to 1957-01-19 | face to face | 1,762 | 1,762 |
| ANES 1952 Time Series Study Source variable: V520081. | 1952-09-15 | face to face | 1,899 | 1,799 |
| ANES 1948 Time Series Study Source variable: V480038,V480039. | 1948-10-01 to 1948-12-31 | face to face | 662 | 578 |