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Who do you think will be elected President in November?
Expected winner of the presidential election · Asked in 18 waves, 1952–2024 · 46,083 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Codes that include 'no Pre/Post IW' were dropped for respondents without that interview. Kept and flagged: 8 (dk), 9 (other_missing).
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2016).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate | Other candidate | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents |
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2024 Time Series Study Source variable: V241211. | 2024-08-03 to 2025-02-17 | mixed | 5,521 | 5,276 |
| ANES 2020 Time Series Study Source variable: V201217. | 2020-08-18 to 2021-01-04 | mixed | 8,280 | 8,280 |
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Source variable: V161146. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 4,270 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study Source variable: V083073. | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,322 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study Source variable: V043093. | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,212 |
| ANES 2000 Time Series Study Source variable: V000485. | 2000-09-05 to 2000-12-22 | mixed | 1,807 | 1,807 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study Source variable: V960381. | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,714 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2016).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| 52% |
| 46% |
| 2% |
| 5276 |
| ±2 |
| Lower income | 45% | 52% | 4% | 1620 | ±4 |
| Middle income | 52% | 46% | 3% | 1722 | ±3 |
| Upper income | 58% | 41% | 1% | 1623 | ±3 |
ANES 2024 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 |
| mixed |
| 2,485 |
| 2,485 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study Source variable: V880098. | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 2,040 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study Source variable: V840076. | 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 | mixed | 2,257 | 2,257 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study Source variable: V800054. | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,614 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study Source variable: V763026. | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 2,248 |
| ANES 1972 Time Series Study Source variable: V720025. | 1972-09-01 to 1973-02-13 | face to face | 2,705 | 2,705 |
| ANES 1968 Time Series Study Source variable: V680025. | 1968-09-06 to 1969-01-28 | face to face | 1,557 | 1,557 |
| ANES 1964 Time Series Study Source variable: V640018. | 1964-09-07 to 1965-02-01 | face to face | 1,571 | 1,571 |
| ANES 1960 Time Series Study Source variable: V600017. | 1960-09-12 to 1960-12-26 | face to face | 1,181 | 1,164 |
| ANES 1956 Time Series Study Source variable: V560012. | 1956-09-17 to 1957-01-19 | face to face | 1,762 | 1,762 |
| ANES 1952 Time Series Study Source variable: V520013. | 1952-09-15 | face to face | 1,899 | 1,799 |