Specific schoolsFull briefing
Universal Pre-K kids are now in grade 5. Did the investment hold?
The longer form of the briefing for this story: the original thesis, the supporting findings the data team flagged, and the reporting directions a journalist could follow. For the short version and the data analysis, see the main story page.
Thesis
NYC's Universal Pre-K (UPK) launched in 2014. The first full UPK cohort (kids entering 3K/4K in 2014-15) is now in 5th grade. Did those kids outperform pre-UPK cohorts on grade-5 outcomes?
Supporting findings
- Pre-UPK baseline: 2014-15 5th graders (no UPK access).
- Post-UPK first wave: 2024-25 5th graders had UPK in 2014-15 and 3-K in many cases.
- Compare avg grade-5 ELA/math proficiency: 2018-19 (last full pre-UPK adjusted cohort) vs 2024-25.
- Issue: many other factors changed (COVID, instruction, test recalibration).
- Better comparison: difference-in-differences using ZIP codes with high vs low UPK access in 2014-15.
- Some neighborhoods had UPK access fast (Manhattan, Brooklyn). Outer-borough rollout was slower.
- Use UPK access as instrument: did kids in high-UPK-uptake ZIPs have larger outcome lift?
- Compare with Boston UPK research (Lipsey/Yale).
- What does Adams want to do with UPK? Funding shifts post-COVID stimulus expiration?
- Frame: 'The UPK promise was: better K-12 outcomes through earlier start. Eleven years in, the verdict is...'
Reporting directions
- Pull NYC OD UPK enrollment data by census tract by year.
- Build the ZIP-level UPK-access vs grade-5-outcome lift table.
- Interview Christina Weiland (Michigan) on best-practices for UPK evaluation.
- Compare with Boston's longitudinal data through grade 8.