Chronic absenteeism is 7 points above pre-COVID and isn't recovering

Thesis

Pre-pandemic chronic absenteeism averaged 29.8% citywide; it spiked to 44% in 2021-22 and has only slowly retreated to 36.6% in 2024-25 — still 7 points above the 2018-19 baseline. The gap is widening between the schools that recovered and the schools that didn't.

Supporting findings

• 2018-19 baseline: avg 29.8% (sd 15.2)
• 2021-22 peak: avg 44.0% (sd 16.7) — the year schools fully reopened post-COVID
• 2024-25 latest: avg 36.6% (sd 14.6) — three years after the peak, still ~7 points above baseline
• About 60% of NYC schools have absenteeism higher than they did in 2018-19 (median delta is +7.5 points).
• But the standard deviation hasn't widened much — most schools moved together, not just the bottom getting worse.
• Borough variation is real: Manhattan averages 41% chronic absenteeism in 2023-24, Staten Island 33%.
• Some schools have *improved* dramatically: 10 schools cut absenteeism by 20+ points 2018-19 → 2024-25, including Bronx Aerospace HS (−34.6 points).
• These improvement stories are concentrated in the Bronx and in challenged-population schools — suggesting interventions are reaching where they're most needed.
• There's a separate story about who got worse: rank schools by absolute delta and look for clusters (district, school type, principal turnover).
• Chronic absenteeism correlates with teacher voice quintile: schools where teachers report lowest trust/recommend score average 43% chronic absenteeism vs 33% for top-quintile schools.

Reporting directions

• Re-rank by single-year deltas (2023-24 → 2024-25) to find schools currently improving fastest.
• Pull citywide attendance policy changes — NYC DOE introduced 'attendance teachers' in some schools around 2022; cross-reference roster.
• Compare with national trends (NAEP, AERA) to contextualize NYC's stuckness.
• Interview principals at the 5 most-improved schools for what they're doing differently.