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Prospective expectation of whether the national economy will get better, stay the same, or get worse over the next year, on a three-point scale.
AI-matched An AI model grouped these questions and mapped their answers onto shared categories, and a second AI review checked and corrected the grouping and mapping. No person has checked it: compare the question wordings and the answer mapping below before reading the lines against each other.
Latest: 34% answered “Get better” in ANES, 2024.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. ANES → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people whose answer maps onto these categories (non-answers and answers outside the scale are left out), because surveys differ in whether they offer “don’t know.” Each column is one survey wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. ANES → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people whose answer maps onto these categories (non-answers and answers outside the scale are left out), because surveys differ in whether they offer “don’t know.” Each point is one survey wave at the middle of its field period. Lines from different surveys are never spliced together.
Groups differ from everyone by 7 points on average across all answers, in ANES.
| Line | Question | Match | How answers map |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANES | Expected national economy over next year What about the next 12 months (1980,1982: or so)?
ALL YEARS EXC. 2000:
Do you expect the (1986,1988,1992: national) economy to get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
2000 VERSION 1:
Do you expect the economy, in the country as a whole, to get better, stay about the same, or get worse?
2000 VERSION 2:
Do you expect the economy, in the country as a whole, to get worse, stay about the same, or get better? Caveat: Early years ask about economy generally rather than 'national'; 2000 wording and order varied | identical | Get better → Get better; Stay about the same → Stay about the same; Get worse → Get worse |
| GSS | Expected national economy over next year What about the next 12 months? Do you expect the national economy to get better, get worse, or stay about the same? Caveat: Same three-point scale; different survey codes and context | identical | Get better → Get better; Stay the same → Stay about the same; Get worse → Get worse |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. ANES → mixed mode (2012).
Groups differ from everyone by 5 points on average across all answers, in ANES.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. ANES → mixed mode (2012).
Subgroup charts are picked automatically. Of every breakdown in the data (party, ideology, age, sex, race, education, income, region, religion, and community type), these two put their groups furthest from everyone’s answers: the gap is averaged across all answer categories and waves, with each group weighted by its share of respondents. Party and ideology count as one choice, so the second chart shows a different kind of split. Groups with an effective sample under 50 in a wave are left out of that wave.