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Five years from now, do you think that the chance that you will experience a natural disaster or severe weather event will be higher, lower, or about the same as it is now?
Expected chance of natural disaster in five years · Asked in 4 waves, 2021–2024 · 47,236 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Much higher | Somewhat higher | About the same | Somewhat lower | Much lower | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 10% |
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHED 2024 45 imputed values recoded to -1. | 2024-10-18 to 2024-10-31 | web | 12,295 | 12,295 |
| SHED 2023 36 imputed values recoded to -1. | 2023-10-20 to 2023-11-05 | web | 11,400 | 11,400 |
| SHED 2022 47 imputed values recoded to -1. | 2022-10-21 to 2022-11-01 | web | 11,667 | 11,667 |
| SHED 2021 35 imputed values recoded to -1. | 2021-11-01 to 2021-11-30 | web | 11,874 | 11,874 |
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| 27% |
| 56% |
| 2% |
| 4% |
| 12295 |
| ±1.0 |
| 18–29 | 12% | 28% | 51% | 3% | 6% | 1887 | ±2 |
| 30–44 | 12% | 28% | 52% | 3% | 5% | 2813 | ±2 |
| 45–64 | 9% | 25% | 60% | 2% | 4% | 4076 | ±2 |
| 65+ | 7% | 26% | 62% | 2% | 3% | 3519 | ±2 |
SHED 2024 · US adults 18+. Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.