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Likelihood of respondent born on a date with a Vietnam War draft lottery number
Vietnam War draft lottery likelihood by birth date · Asked in 27 waves, 1978–2021 · 10,794 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → web (2021).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Draft lottery number made draft unlikely |
|---|
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Social Survey 2021 | 2020-12-03 to 2021-05-02 | web | 4,032 | 568 |
| General Social Survey 2018 | 2018-04-12 to 2018-11-10 | face to face | 2,348 | 331 |
| General Social Survey 2016 | 2016-04-05 to 2016-11-19 | face to face | 2,867 | 387 |
| General Social Survey 2014 | 2014-03-31 to 2014-10-13 | face to face | 2,538 | 354 |
| General Social Survey 2012 | 2012-03-20 to 2012-09-05 | face to face | 1,974 | 296 |
| General Social Survey 2010 | 2010-03-15 to 2010-08-12 | face to face | 2,044 | 322 |
| General Social Survey 2008 | 2008-04-17 to 2008-09-13 | face to face | 2,023 | 316 |
| General Social Survey 2006 | 2006-03-07 to 2006-08-07 | face to face | 4,510 | 747 |
| General Social Survey 2004 | 2004-08-18 to 2005-01-04 | face to face | 2,812 | 466 |
| General Social Survey 2002 |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → web (2021).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| Draft lottery number made draft likely |
|---|
| n |
|---|
| MoE |
|---|
| All respondents | 49% | 51% | 568 | ±5 | |
| Less than high school † | Too few respondents | – | – | 17 | ±29 |
| High school | 52% | 48% | 133 | ±9 | |
| Some college | 50% | 50% | 148 | ±9 | |
| Bachelor's | 49% | 51% | 139 | ±9 | |
| Postgraduate | 55% | 45% | 131 | ±9 |
General Social Survey 2021 · US adults 18+ living in households (English, and Spanish since 2006). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 2002-02-06 to 2002-06-26 |
| face to face |
| 2,765 |
| 410 |
| General Social Survey 2000 | 2000-02-01 to 2000-06-25 | face to face | 2,817 | 481 |
| General Social Survey 1998 | 1998-02-01 to 1998-06-19 | face to face | 2,832 | 481 |
| General Social Survey 1996 | 1996-02-01 to 1996-05-25 | face to face | 2,904 | 562 |
| General Social Survey 1994 | 1994-01-04 to 1994-06-29 | face to face | 2,992 | 619 |
| General Social Survey 1993 | 1993-02-05 to 1993-04-26 | face to face | 1,606 | 331 |
| General Social Survey 1991 | 1991-02-09 to 1991-05-06 | face to face | 1,517 | 301 |
| General Social Survey 1990 | 1990-02-06 to 1990-04-22 | face to face | 1,372 | 288 |
| General Social Survey 1989 | 1989-02-04 to 1989-05-01 | face to face | 1,537 | 309 |
| General Social Survey 1988 | 1988-02-12 to 1988-04-26 | face to face | 1,481 | 330 |
| General Social Survey 1987 | 1987-01-31 to 1987-04-28 | face to face | 1,819 | 397 |
| General Social Survey 1986 | 1986-02-14 to 1986-04-24 | face to face | 1,470 | 314 |
| General Social Survey 1985 | 1985-02-09 to 1985-04-23 | face to face | 1,534 | 329 |
| General Social Survey 1984 | 1984-02-06 to 1984-04-20 | face to face | 1,473 | 334 |
| General Social Survey 1983 | 1983-02-23 to 1983-04-27 | face to face | 1,599 | 361 |
| General Social Survey 1982 | 1982-02-11 to 1982-04-27 | face to face | 1,860 | 401 |
| General Social Survey 1980 | 1980-01-18 to 1980-05-16 | face to face | 1,468 | 361 |
| General Social Survey 1978 | 1978-02-13 to 1978-04-29 | face to face | 1,532 | 398 |