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Now, think about this situation. A doctor tells a couple that their genetic makeup means that they've got one in four chances of having a child with an inherited illness. A. Does this mean that if their first child has the illness, the next three will not have the illness?
Probability quiz: illness risk after first child · Asked in 7 waves, 2006–2018 · 8,891 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Yes | No | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 13% | 87% | 1175 | ±4 | |
| Democrats | 15% | 85% | 376 | ±6 |
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Social Survey 2018 | 2018-04-12 to 2018-11-10 | face to face | 2,348 | 1,175 |
| General Social Survey 2016 | 2016-04-05 to 2016-11-19 | face to face | 2,867 | 1,390 |
| General Social Survey 2014 | 2014-03-31 to 2014-10-13 | face to face | 2,538 | 1,239 |
| General Social Survey 2012 | 2012-03-20 to 2012-09-05 | face to face | 1,974 | 1,002 |
| General Social Survey 2010 | 2010-03-15 to 2010-08-12 | face to face | 2,044 | 716 |
| General Social Survey 2008 | 2008-04-17 to 2008-09-13 | face to face | 2,023 | 1,505 |
| General Social Survey 2006 | 2006-03-07 to 2006-08-07 | face to face | 4,510 | 1,864 |
| Independents (incl. leaners) | 13% | 87% | 498 | ±5 |
| Republicans | 9% | 91% | 248 | ±8 |
General Social Survey 2018 · US adults 18+ living in households (English, and Spanish since 2006). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.