PhiladelphiaGrowth vs statusmedium
Average PSSA ELA goes UP from grade 5 to grade 6 in Philly — selection, not learning
Thesis
Across Philly schools, the average PSSA ELA proficiency rate is 26.8% at grade 5 (n=142 schools) but jumps to 34.4% at grade 6 (n=119 schools). That's a +7.6pp climb that has nothing to do with student learning — it's selection: schools serving K-5 only don't have grade 6 data, and the schools that DO go past grade 5 (K-8 + middle) are systematically higher-achieving.
Supporting findings
- Grade 3 ELA: avg 29.6%, n=141 schools.
- Grade 4 ELA: avg 28.8%, n=142 schools.
- Grade 5 ELA: avg 26.8%, n=142 schools.
- Grade 6 ELA: avg 34.4%, n=119 schools — jump of +7.6pp.
- Grade 7 ELA: avg 33.7%, n=118 schools.
- Grade 8 ELA: avg 33.4%, n=116 schools.
- Drop from n=142 to n=119 between grade 5 and 6 = 23 schools that stop at grade 5. Likely K-5 elementary schools serving higher-need students.
Reporting directions
- Compute the same trajectory at K-8 schools only (constant school set) — does the jump disappear? (Hypothesis: yes.)
- List the K-5-only schools and show their grade-5 outcomes vs the K-8 schools' grade-5 outcomes. The selection gap is the story.
- Compare to NYC's 'middle-school cliff' story — there it's a real cohort-level decline; here it's an artifact of school structure.
Methodology & replication recipe — the queries + sources behind the findings above.